Among the sports betting public there\’s a lot of conflicting opinions about betting NFL preseason games. That\’s not really surprising, since there doesn\’t seem to be much middle ground on the subject. Overly cautious handicappers would argue that preseason football is a poor wagering opportunity. Some of the more obnoxious tout services would have you believe that short of a fixed game there is no greater \”lock\” that preseason football. Like most things that produce such polarized opinions, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Preseason NFL football is a unique proposition for the sports gambler, but when approached with caution, discipline and knowledge it can yield some profit.
First, let\’s examine the case against preseason NFL wagering. Clearly the biggest argument against it is the simple fact that the games don\’t count. Though spots will exist during regular season games when the motivation and preparation of individual teams may vary, in theory both teams want to win. That\’s not always the case in preseason football, since different coaches have different goals. Some might want to just evaluate their personnel, others might want to establish a winning attitude, and all coaches want to keep their stars from getting injured. Factor in all of the variables and conflicting agendas, the preseason naysayer would argue, and there are just too many unknowns to consider taking a financial position on.
The preseason NFL betting enthusiast would suggest, however, that it is the uncertainty that characterizes these games that makes for such a strong wagering opportunity. For example, in a matchup between a championship level team and a losing team you often see strongly divergent approaches to the game. Successful teams have more to worry about in terms of player injuries, fewer areas in which they need to evaluate talent, and more continuity in the areas of coaching and team chemistry. They often view preseason games as a chore, and have little interest in their outcome as long as they keep their superstars healthy.
On the other hand, consider the \’lesser\’ team in a preseason matchup. They often have a number of key starting positions they need to fill, along with backup positions up for grabs. They may have new coaching staffs that players want to impress, new offensive or defensive schemes to implement. Most significantly, \’lesser\’ teams often view the preseason as an opportunity to build team chemistry or create a winning attitude. A team trying to rebuild can benefit from winning *any* games, regardless of whether or not they count in the standings. For a league doormat, a win over an elite level opponent can serve as a rare highlight of a losing season.
Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don\’t want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%.
There may be no greater determining factor of a team\’s preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don\’t like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants\’ Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the \”good\” preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look.
The smart preseason handicapper makes use of the Internet, and more specifically uses it to follow the local sports media of NFL teams. During NFL preseasons, teams\’ beat writers are anxious to write stories and need to fill articles but have little in the way of \”real\” news to write about. As a result, a handicapper can frequently find valuable details like a coach\’s goals for the game, playing time for key players, and specific strategies that will be implemented. Occasionally, coaches will come out and say that they\’re more interested in evaluating certain players for certain positions than they are in the outcome of the game. A thorough evaluation of this type of media coverage can often produce not only teams to play \”on\”, but teams with priorities other than winning to play \”against\”.
In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It\’s a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other\”and better\”football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL.
Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, flower arranging and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.
categories: NFL football,sports betting,sports,gambling,games,recreation,hobbies,travel,leisure,entertainment,marketing
No related posts.